Prediction of osteoporotic degradation of tibia human bone at trabecular scale

A theoretical numerical model is proposed to predict patient dependent osteoporotic bone degradation. The model parameters are identified through a particle swarm optimization algorithm and based on individual patient high resolution peripherical quantitative computer tomography (HRpQCT) scan data. The degradation model is based on cellular activity initiated by the elastic strain energy developed in the bone microstructure through patient's body weight. The macro (organ scale) and meso (trabecular scale) scale analyses are carried out and predicted bone volume fraction and microstructure evolution are compared with in-vivo experimental bone degradation for four elderly women over a period of 10 years. A significant correlation (r > 0.9) is observed between the model predictions and in-vivo experiments in all cases with an average deviation error of 1.46%. The model can easily be extended to other patients and provide good predictions for different population categories such as ethnicity, gender, age, etc.