Research on Forecasting Flowering Phase of Pear Tree Based on Neural Network

Predicting the blooming season of ornamental plants is significant for guiding adjustments in production decisions and providing viewing periods and routes. The current strategies for observation of ornamental plant booming periods are mainly based on manpower and experience, which have problems such as inaccurate recognition time, time-consuming and energy sapping. Therefore, this paper proposes a neural network-based method for predicting the flowering phase of pear tree. Firstly, based on the meteorological observation data of Shijiazhuang Meteorological Station from 2000 to 2019, three principal components (the temperature factor, weather factor, and humidity factor) with high correlation coefficient with the flowering phase of pear tree are obtained by using the principal component analysis method. Then, the three components are used as input factors for the BP neural network. A BP neural network prediction model is constructed based on genetic algorithm optimization. The crossover operator and mutation operator in the adaptive genetic algorithm are improved. Finally, the meteorological sample data from 2013 to 2019 are used to test and verify the algorithm in this paper. The results demonstrate that, the model can solve the local optimization problem of the BP neural network model. The prediction results of the flowering phase of pear tree are evaluated in terms of relevance and prediction accuracy. Both are superior to the traditional effective accumulated temperature and the prediction results of the stepwise regression method. This method can provide more reliable forecast information for the blooming period, which can provide decision-making reference for improving the development of tourism industry.