The Slow Return to Viability

In my previous article ‘At the Bottom of the Trough’ which was published in this journal in January, I suggested that a general upturn would be delayed until the late Spring/early Summer of 1986. At the time of writing this report in early June, the signs are that the return to viability has started in the UK. Companies both large and small are indicating improved order books and a general sense of optimism is beginning to return. It will be some time before this order flow becomes converted into actual production (with average lead times of about 6–8 weeks in the industry, the accelerated order flow will be some 1–2 months in coming through). At the same time, if increased orders means the hiring of extra people, then further delays may take place before the bottle‐necks are cleared and the product starts to be shipped.